Better off investing in a new S-curve.

2018-06-17

• For subjects where the investment-return relationship is S-curve.

• Early on, investing in it looks like a loss.

  • However, as you continue to invest, the return on investment will increase, making your investment more profitable.

• The problem is that after this

• Slowly diminishing return on investment will eventually make the investment a loss again.

• But at that point, compared to the other yet-to-be-invested S-curves, it still looks more profitable to invest in this curve.

• This is how they keep investing in the old S-curve.

• But in the long run, it is actually more profitable to invest in a new S-curve

• Refined version of Better off investing in new curves. from 4 years ago

• Still not sure about whether investment in knowledge follows an S-curve

  • used to naively think that it was exponential, but it is more consistent with many things to think of it as an S-curve
    • Principle that the learning curve is an S-curve
    • S-shaped utility of knowledge in a winner-take-all environment
    • Serial Specialist concept

• 2024-11-24

  • Look back after 6 years and comment
    • The rise of the S-curve appears to be exponential.
    • Will exponential growth continue indefinitely or will it hit some obstacle and slow down?
      • In the real world, you can't be infinitely fast like in a mathematical model, so you're almost always going to run into some obstacle.
      • But the timing of the collision is not clear until it happens.
        • The total amount of knowledge in a given field is difficult to comprehend at the beginning stages of learning that field.

Addendum 2024.

• relevance - comfort zone - Trade-offs between use and exploration

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