Futarchy
Robin Hanson(2000)
- Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs Vitalik Buterin(2014)
- An Introduction to Futarchy | Ethereum Foundation Blog 2025
- The State of Onchain Futarchy | Galaxy
2025-08-11 A study on Futarchy, a predictive market-based policy making process｜Shunsuke Takagi Shunsuke Takagi
2025-04-07
Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs
Futarchy is a new form of governance proposed to solve the problems of democracy. In this democracy, "values (what to aim for)" are decided by voting, but "policies (how to realize them)" are determined by "betting" in the prediction market.
- Whether a consensus has been reached on the pronunciation is tenuous.
Specifically, elected representatives define how to measure "national welfare," and the policy is implemented only if the prediction market clearly indicates that the level of welfare will improve after the policy is implemented.
This system is based on the following three assumptions
- democratic failures occur because of insufficient information aggregation.
- it is not difficult to distinguish between rich and poor countries ex post.
- forecasting markets are the most effective aggregators of information.
Futarchy is not yet practiced, but it is ideologically neutral, and a wide range of policies, from socialism to liberalism, are said to be feasible depending on the values of the people.
Futurarchy is probably a transcription error
This page is auto-translated from /nishio/Futarchy using DeepL. If you looks something interesting but the auto-translated English is not good enough to understand it, feel free to let me know at @nishio_en. I'm very happy to spread my thought to non-Japanese readers.