How to come up with good ideas 2017-03-31 @ unexplored junior Camp Unexplored Foundation Director / Cybozu Labs Yasukazu Nishio This slide is a document of a 10-minute presentation given to 1017-year-old creators at the Unexplored Junior Camp.
2I recently received the following consultation
3My subordinates come up with IDEA that are only about 80 points, but no 90 or 95 point ideas. How can we help them come up with better ideas?
What is this phenomenon? 4 When does the phenomenon "few ideas above 90 points" occur?
- 5Focusing on decentralization (variation in quality), of course it occurs when the quantity of ideas produced is small or when the average quality of the ideas produced is low. However, even if there is no difference in the quantity or average quality of ideas, it will occur if there is a difference in decentralization (variation in quality).
Variation in quality is not a bad thing6The greater the variation, the more ideas are above 90 points.
Variation in quality is not a good7 The greater the variation, the more ideas that fail below 60 points.
Line to be crossed8
60 points or more is good 90 points or more is good
The good and bad of the variation depends on the line to be crossed.
Which situation are you in now?
Think of it in terms of dice9 dice2 sum of dice1 double7 average probability of getting 12 1/36 average probability of getting 2 1/36 average probability of getting 12 1/6 average probability of getting 2 1/6 7The greater the variation, the higher the probability of getting a good or bad roll.
How to get good ideas10The probability of getting a good eye is high if you increase the variability, but the probability of getting a bad eye is also high. There are ways to improve this.
Do it three times and pick the best one 11 average 9.06 average 9.92
Doing it over and over and selecting the good ones12 You don't get a "good idea" from the beginning, you get a number of ideas and keep only the good ones, which become "good ideas" after the fact. And the greater the variation in quality, the higher the quality of the final remaining ideas. Average 9.06Average 9.92
Note: Maximum value, not average value13If you get a lot of ideas and opinions, and then try to incorporate all of them by "adding them up," you will have limited time and less time to multiply each idea, so you will be closer to the average, which will reduce variability. The only exceptions are combinations where 1 + 1 equals 10.
Summary 14: To come up with good ideas, you need to increase the variety of quality, come up with a lot of ideas, and choose one idea instead of trying to do them all.
Supplement 15 p.12 originally stated "Discard the bad ones and keep only the good ones" but the first half was deleted. Dr. Toshiyuki Masui pointed out: -If you discard what you think is bad, the variation after that will be less. If you keep it, it may be useful later. -I agree with this opinion.
Supplemental Appendix 16There is little harm in having a lot of ideas on record. On the other hand, if you try to do many things at the same time or talk about them in one presentation, the time you can spend on each one will decrease. It is important to note that "recording/storing" and "doing/talking" have different characteristics.
- 2017-03-31 #2017 #03-31 #2017-03
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