NISHIO Hirokazu[English][日本語]

Team MIRAI 2025 Various Data

from Diary 2025-07-22 Team Mirai Various Data

Talking Manifesto: 8559 proposals, 192 taken in

  • (FYI: on GitHub at the time of the gubernatorial election, there were 104 proposals, 85 taken in, so an increase of 1~2 orders of magnitude)

Adopted Policy Proposals

  • A. Direct merge: 192
    • A-1. Merge on policy out of: 159
    • A-2. of which system-related: 33
  • close with B.thankyou: 95
    • In cases where there are multiple related proposals and the policy team merges them with reference to each other, it is not clear whether or not they have been merged with reference to each other, so a "thankyou" label is added to the label.
  • Of the proposals for the policy, 159 were directly merged, including 95 proposals that were referenced, so 159 + 95 = 254 is a good number
    • I'd like to express this for the general public like "254 suggestions for improvement were used to improve the manifesto" because it's hard to convey the "merge" in this case!
    • Bottom line, we were able to adopt about three times as many proposals as we did during the gubernatorial campaign.

AI

Team Mirai Supporter Slack image

https://github.com/team-mirai-volunteer image

X number of statements image

Team Mirai in the 2025 House of Councillors election (proportional representation)

Short Video Results

  • Official YouTube: 7,909,000 views, over 100,000 registered users
    • Longer lengths drive registration growth, while shorter lengths (up to 500,000 times) contribute significantly to increased awareness.
  • TikTok: 930,000 views in the last 60 days, 9.4 times more than the previous period / 28 times more than the previous period, rapid growth
  • Instagram Reel: 5.2 million views in 30 days. High empathy with 50% response rate compared to 23% view share.

Ameba Time's article on YouTube, "Team Mirai is growing head and shoulders above the rest (outside of the caucus)," and "It's hard to imagine advertising growing this much."

Cabinet support at 22%, record low, PM Ishiba should resign 51%, Kyodo News poll - Nikkei

Party support was 10.8% for the Rikumin, 5.2% for the Ishin, 15.1% for the Kokumin, 4.6% for the Komeito, 4.3% for the Reiwa Shinsei Gumi, 3.7% for the Communist Party, 11.8% for the Sangen, 2.7% for the Japan Conservative Party, 1.3% for the Social Democratic Party, 4.1% for Team Mirai, and 0.2% for the Minna de Tsukuru Party. Among independents, 12.3% said they did not support any political party.

[Political party support: LDP 19%, 参政 12%, first time in second place KMT 11% NNN, Yomiuri Shimbun Urgent Poll (Nittele News NNN) - Yahoo! News https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/5c3ed676afd930d8984bd20984250 a439ef91c78]

Team Mirai 2 NNN and Yomiuri Shimbun Public Opinion Poll July 21-22 National Voter Telephone Survey 408 landline 408 respondents 54% response rate Mobile phones 635 respondents 35% response rate Total of 1043 respondents

People gathered at the microphone end of the day

  • 10,000 people, according to the official announcement by the police
  • I have a suspicion that it was combined with the Japanese Conservative Party that was next door.

nishio.iconHow many more votes did Team Mirai need to win two seats? o3.icon

  • Team Mirai Number of votes
    • 1,517,890 votes
  • Divide value of the 7th seat of the Constituent Assembly (the value that determined the 50th seat)
    • 7,397,467 ÷ 7 ＝ 1,056,781
    • 50th largest quotient in DʼHondt method
  • Team Mirai Current value of the second seat 1,517,890 ÷ 2 = 758,945 Divide value to get the second seat
  • The condition to win the second seat is (number of votes) ÷ 2 > 1,056,781
  • Therefore, the additional number of votes x required is
    • $​(1517890 + x) / 2 > 1056781$
    • $x = 595672$
  • Conclusion.
    • With about 600,000 additional votes (about 596,000 to be exact), Team Mirai would have won a second seat for proportional representation.
    • An increase of approximately 39.2% was required.
  • *The calculation is a simple DʼHondt simulation using the finalized vote count. The threshold may change by a few thousand votes due to slight movements of votes or fluctuations in the vote counts of other parties, but generally "just under 600,000 more votes" is a rough estimate.

This page is auto-translated from /nishio/チームみらい2025各種データ using DeepL. If you looks something interesting but the auto-translated English is not good enough to understand it, feel free to let me know at @nishio_en. I'm very happy to spread my thought to non-Japanese readers.

(C)NISHIO Hirokazu / Converted from Markdown (en)
Source: [GitHub] / [Scrapbox]