Team Mirai's Forecast Market

Manifold

nishio Interesting prediction market for a topic of interest. https://manifold.markets/taka/2025831?r=dGFrYQ

Why use play money? Why Use Play Money? Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free. Mana (Ṁ) is the play money currency used to bet on manifolds. It cannot be exchanged for cash. All users start with Rs. 1,000 for free. Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question. With Play Money, it is much easier for anyone in the world to start forecasting without risk. It also means more freedom to create and bet on all kinds of questions. I see. So it's not gambling because there is no cash value.

Emotion Log

• When I saw the 13% listed, I felt compelled to "support" the project.

• I didn't think it was rational behavior to plunk down all the 1000 mana I received at the start of my account to "support" them.

  • That's not a "prediction."
  • If you tell Team Mirai officials that this is being done, it is likely to swing to the YES side by those who are "cheering" as well!
  • If you send out a message on social media that this is being done, many people are likely to "cheer" as well!
  • After all, that's a popularity contest, not a prediction market.

• If we think about it based on the current "how it is" rather than "how the system should be," the negative value of losing "1000 mana given for free" is almost negligible, so the benefit of increasing the expected value by plunging 1000 mana into the system is greater, isn't it?

• Create an account to shove 1000 mana into it.

  • 
    • You put 50 mana in, you get 337 mana back.
    • Oh well, the odds are changing because of the swing to NO.
  • 
    • 617 for 100, 1675 for 400.
    • It's going down gradually, because the odds change depending on my purchases.
  • 
    • When I tried to put more in, he said, "Really?" I was told.
  • It's more fun to put in a little at a time than to put in 1,000 and not be able to take action in the future.
    • I only put in 100.
  • 
    • With this purchase, it went up to 20%.
    • It's like a stock that has too little liquidity to move in price with your trades.

    • nishio I was standing in the prediction market to see if Team Mirai could become a political party with a service that allows you to legally experience the prediction market with non-cashable game coins. I put 100 game coins in YES!

• I bought another one.

• 

  • way of walking (e.g. in martial arts, etc.)
    • The first 100 mana yielded a share of 617 and the second 100 mana yielded a share of 442.
    • 
  • What happens if I sell here?

• 

  • hmm
    • (I misinterpreted this as "what the heck, I can sell" and did "then I'll buy a lot while it's cheap", but this is not selling, it's just holding both positions, so the mana is locked and won't come back until the end.)
  • Currently, just one new account has fluctuated from 30% to 60% just by plunking down the coins they get when they create an account, so I'm not going to have faith in the "predictions" until we get more people.

• Apparently, $5 for 500 mana.

  • You could play distort the prediction market.
  • I tend to assume that everyone feels the same value for cash, but I still feel that when it's game coins that can't be converted to cash, it's money that is spent for the experience of playing the game and doesn't need to come back.

• What's that? Can you still sell?

  • 
  • 
  • 

• Ah, I can SELL, and the mana is coming back.

  • But I'd like to SELL the NO position, but I don't know where that leads.

nishio "You're misunderstanding the conditions of formation" discussion is happening, interesting w

0xtkgshn Looks like you can buy it at a limit price.

• Tokens are not consumed when limit orders are placed.
  • It would be consumed when actually purchased.

2025-05-12

• 
• be amused
• "Take a position before others understand it."
  • SOC to learn about the market opening before others do, take a position with all their assets and go from 27% to 65%, and then spread that information by social capital, thereby increasing the number of tokens attributed to individuals.
• 
• Aww, that's hilarious!
  • By selling first, you lock in a profit, while the unrealized profit of those who are holding shrinks as the price drops due to the sale.
• 
  • I'll just buy the cheapest part of the price drop caused by this sale.

• You can place a limit order with a token you don't have and paint a picture of a buying advantage w
• W did on the Yes side on a larger scale what the No side originally did.
• I don't like the specification that the order is cancelled if there aren't enough tokens when the order is placed.
  • In other words, you can place any number of large limit orders with no risk, making the quote information meaningless.
  • If you don't have enough tokens, you should be able to automatically debit your credit card to pay for the W.

When I think of simply maximizing money, it is better to sell now what I bought at 16% to fix the profit of unrealized profit, but that is to own the tokens invested by people who bought with the desire to support Mr. Anno, so it is a delicate feeling when considering social capital outside the market and other factors. It's not a pure prediction market when these feelings arise.

• First of all, it should be anonymous to reduce the impact on social capital, and you should be able to bet so much money that you can't care about others and get twitchy (...)
  • 単純にマネーの最大化を考えた時、16%の時に買ったものを今売って含み益の利益確定をするのが良い どうなんだろう。結局最終的には、yes or no になるので、人によって期待値の査定が違うというだけだと思う。確信してたら、今利確しなくて良い
  • If I can repurchase the position by taking a profit now because I have more tokens available to hold the position, it would be a larger profit, but does that mean that I will not have the opportunity to repurchase in the future? Does the forecast for future price volatility also have an impact?
  • Yes, so theoretically, even 99% (not at 100%) would be undervalued.

I thought that being able to SELL as well as BUY YES/NO is a bad design because it attracts "people who are not interested in the final YES/NO but want to profit from short-term price movements".

• After a while, I thought those people might be useful to increase liquidity.

tomolld https://manifold.markets/taka/2025831?play=true… I've been trying to think of a way to win this, but the benefits of disinformation are too great. That's why there are so many fakes.

• interesting
  • The timing of this the other day was that bluemo made a profit by selling at a high price, while the drop in price caused a lot of damage to me, who had a position in the market.
    • 
  • Then I picked up the low and the price returned to its pre-drop level, which increased my unrealized profit to 1000, and in the process, bluemo's profit did not increase, indicating that he did not have a position.
    • 
  • Since the limit price is soaked to 69% and 70%, it's hard to move the price in either direction, since it would trigger the opposite buyers.
    • 
    • It's funny(?). I'll buy up to 70%.
    • 
    • Now it's going to be a power struggle to see which way to push this contacting board.

2025-05-15

• I want to buy it but I don't have the coins because it's too good to waste because the prediction market is not reacting to the people's democratic zeal and people are flowing to Team Mirai.
• 
  • You can borrow and bet!
• 
  • Is there a way to make questions and get bonuses?
  • 
  • interesting
  • I tried to make a question and get 100M.
    • 
    • You need 100M to make it!

2025-07-23 The story of how I opened a prediction market asking "Will Team Mirai win the election?" and how the market result brilliantly hit reality｜Shunsuke Takagi Shunsuke Takagi

nishio It was a social experiment with interesting results.

from dd2030 slack taka: I wrote this article because I have learned a lot as a result of making a market forecast on my own regarding Team Mirai's bid for a seat in the House. As a result, I thought that the market forecast is a good predictor of reality and can be used as a source of information. I wrote about the future of information finance, so if you are getting tired of "Web 3," please take a look!

• Jun Ito (Eddie): ↑Great. It was very interesting.
• taka:I think I heard something about not being able to mention it in a big way, like it might hit some kind of popularity contest, but I'm not sure lol. Shinta Nakayama (tokoroten): I wonder why the forecasting market was hot for a while, then went downhill, and now is blooming once again.
  • A new strategy called "prediction market" that turns ordinary people into prophets After this came out, a few projects happened, and then they were wiped out.
• In-house tools -> Unless you are smart guys like Google or a very large company like Wal-Mart, you can't get enough people to participate and the cost of operation is too high and it will kill you.
• I think it's a situation of revival once again combined with cryptocurrencies.
  • nishio: 2015: Birth of Ethereum
  • taka: I feel that Oracle and Google are doing the in-house forecasting market, aren't they?
    • But I think that with the actual release of Ethereum & the much lower gas prices (this has been a few years), the decentralized prediction market is finally starting to turn around.
    • In fact, in the U.S. presidential election, the trump vs. harris polymarket has circulated about 500 billion yen equivalent in USDC (stable coins corresponding to the U.S. dollar).
    • Polymarket users have wagered $3.2 billion on the outcome of the election—and the majority of bets are on Trump winning | Fortune
      • - Implementation costs for the external forecasting market were too high. - Internal forecasting market lacks diversity of people OR does not reach a sufficient number of people (in terms of volume, diversity) - No matter how successful the internal forecasting market is, that know-how is not distributed.
  • Shinta Nakayama (tokoroten)
    • Thanks to the connection to real money, is it correct to go for arbitrage against the distortion of probability, and thus liquidity was created, and as a result, the fun was born?
    • The money-makers guarantee liquidity, the price movements create interest, and the market size snowballs.
    • I felt narratives like this.
  • taka:
    • That is exactly how I feel. I personally believe that hedge funds and others are getting into the prediction market, especially in the sense that you can expect a lot of expectation if you are convinced that you hold the EDGE.
    • I wrote this article with the image that it would be interesting if we could reverse that and use https://note.com/tkgshn/n/n6a587934701a more and more various intelligence for things that have positive externalities, such as policy making (information finance).
    • However, I wrote this article slightly before, so I would think it could be written a little more nicely now. - A memorandum on the Kardashev Scale for Democracy and Futarchy (Futurism), choosing policies based on the wisdom of the crowd.
• Incidentally, I was frustrated when I tried to put in an all-out bid when the election was assured (when the party requirements were still unclear), but the market was closed.
  • nishio: this is a weakness in the prediction market that Taka misunderstood the party requirement (vulnerability of the individual judging the end result).
  • taka: Since you wrote it here, I'll answer in my own way.
    • I wonder if there is a way to make the oracle (delivering the results to the market) something we can manage with a high degree of freedom.
    • With Polymarket, there's an on-chain oracle called UMA.
    • There are several other oracles, but fundamentally, they're designed to feel like poker, where you're buying and selling more and more.
      • https://scrapbox.io/tkgshn/realityeth
    • And then there are some places that implement challenges (objections) in a sort of decentralized court.
      • https://scrapbox.io/tkgshn/kleros
    • With manifold, it seems that "market maker = resolver", not assuming objection. In this experiment, I would have laughed it off, but I think it is necessary to discuss the design of the mechanism in this area.
    • In the meantime, the crypto people have already pioneered it, so I guess it's like which one to choose + how easy to make it.
• nishio:
  • I thought one aspect that wasn't written down was the layer of gaining attention to the market itself.
  • I had a meta-incentive to spread it early on because I had a meta-incentive to get attention if the number was higher than 50%, but I stopped spreading it in the middle and just forgot about it. w
    • attention is limited resources and affects [liquidity
  • taka
    • How about this?
    • More liquidity means more suckers (from those who are convinced of the outcome), so maybe it's better to spread the word in a way?
    • Consider a situation where there is an incentive not to spread the word.
    • I don't think so?
  • nishio Winning in the real world is more beneficial than winning in the market, when the intermediate state of the market affects the real world.
    • PS: If it had been, say, 80% on, say, the day of the announcement, I would definitely have tweeted, "The prediction market is also predicting the formation of a national political party!" I would have tweeted
  • taka Ah, so that's what you mean by attention.
• tokoroten:
  • I don't care what you say, but there's only one forecasting market book for 2013, and there's no follow-up.
  • I am beginning to feel that the lack of a coherent Japanese-language resource on the contemporary forecasting market is rather problematic.
  • I agree, but I'm stuck with knowledge that is over 10 years old.
  • Manifold, I'd like to play some more.
• TakateTomoki
  • It was really interesting to actually participate.
  • Thank you, Taka.
  • It was the type of concept that you don't understand until you try it.
  • It was especially funny when I said to myself, "I'm betting on it, so I'm going to do my best to develop it.
    • PS
      • This is interesting, the action is prompted by having a buy position
        • Reverse pattern of [People who take an anti-position when they see something they don't understand.
      • SOC is being gained by actions motivated by a buy position.
• tokoroten
  • Even on the last day, I couldn't make the decision to buy at an amount greater than 50%, only to place a limit order below 50%.
  • The prediction market was interesting, including this own value judgment.
  • taka: I think this all depends on whether you end up looking at charts or reality. If you are sure, it's cheap no matter how much you buy.
  • tokoroten: I'm taking a position of support by being in DD2030, so I'm intentionally not a supporter to maintain a neutral position, so I didn't know the ins and outs!
    • PS: I don't think you can be a supporter and not know enough about the inner workings of the W to be sure.
  • taka:
    • Insiders will do best to think, "You guys don't get it," and just buy.
    • And if you lose, it just means you didn't have enough EDGE.

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